The Ethos of Money » Stock Market

The Economy is On First Base

rayrandall — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 12:53:55 +0000

And there’s joy at Fenway as Boston Puts It To the Yankees.

If….you love the Yankees, I understand.

Every morning after a Red Sox game, Lisa’s grandmother tells me about the game. I already know what she tells me, but she gets quite excited at age 95.

She says, “Big Poppie (David Ortiz) clocked his third home run, and things are looking up for him” and “the stock market”, I add.

OK; not so fast, Randall. We have a lot of ground to travel before returning to solid ground. No banners hanging over Wall Street yet.

Just the same, the news is better.

Market analysts support viewpoints with statistics. Most of us find the data dreary. We scan the dull parts faster than a furtive glance.

Baseball stats dull the sound of the bat, the “wave”, and a Fenway Frank. Just the same, statistics and probabilities matter.

This summer, I went to my second Red Sox game. We sat perpendicular to third base. What seats! To my right and to my left, two middle-aged men kept track of every hit and every pitch for every inning.

I asked, “How come you do that?” They both said, “I just enjoy the game more when I do.”

So, for those who enjoy stock statistics, the attached SEI Investments commentary gives you plenty to ponder.

Quiz: Can you guess the stat before reading the right coloumn? They all seem esoteric to me.

GIDP	Ground into Double Plays
IBB	Intentional Bases on Balls (Walks)
GOAO	Ground Outs / Fly Outs Ratio
MB9	Baserunners Per 9 Innings
OFA	Outfield Assists

Here’s the article, “Small-Cap Stocks: Too Far Too Fast or Just the Beginning?” by James Solloway, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager, Global Portfolio Strategies, SEI Investments, Inc.

NOTE: This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding the funds or any stock in particular, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell a security, including futures contracts. There is no assurance as of the date of this material that the securities mentioned remain in or out of the SEI Funds. SEI Investments Management Corporation (SIMC) is the adviser to the SEI Funds, which are distributed by SEI Investments Distribution Co. (SIDCo.) SIMC and SIDCo are wholly owned subsidiaries of SEI Investments Company. For more information, including a prospectus with charges and expenses, call 1-800-DIAL-SEI. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. For those SEI Funds that employ the ‘manager of managers’ structure, SEI Investments Management Corporation has ultimate responsibility for the investment performance of the Fund due to its responsibility to oversee the sub-advisers and recommend their hiring, termination and replacement. Mutual fund investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. In addition to the normal risks associated with equity investing, international investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations. Narrowly focused investments typically exhibit higher volatility. Products of companies in which technology funds invest may be subject to severe competition and rapid obsolescence. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. One cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Ethos provides this news page for information purposes only and it should not be construed as legal, accounting, tax, or professional advice. Ethos Advisory Services disclaims any loss or liability which is incurred as a consequence, directly or indirectly, of the use or application of this news page.

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S&P 500 Price-Earnings Ratio Compliments of Chart of the Day

rayrandall — Fri, 22 May 2009 15:07:18 +0000

Last week’s chart illustrated the current plunge of S&P 500 earnings. Today’s chart illustrates how this plunge in earnings has impacted the current valuation of the stock market as measured by the price to earnings ratio (PE ratio). Generally speaking, when the PE ratio is high, stocks are considered to be expensive. When the PE ratio is low, stocks are considered to be inexpensive. From 1936 into the late 1980s, the PE ratio tended to peak in the low 20s (red line) and trough somewhere around seven (green line). The price investors were willing to pay for a dollar of earnings increased during the dot-com boom (late 1990s) and the dot-com bust (early 2000s). As a result of the current plunge in earnings and the recent 2.5 month stock market rally, the PE ratio has spiked to the low 120s – a record high.

Notes:
- Where’s the market headed? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron’s recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.

Source: Chart of the Day

“S&P 500 Earnings (Inflation-Adjusted)” – Compliments of “Chart of the Day”

rayrandall — Fri, 22 May 2009 14:35:22 +0000

Chart of the Day
While the stock market is up sharply since early March, the economy as well as corporate earnings continue to suffer. Today’s chart helps provide some perspective as to the magnitude of the current economic decline. Today’s chart illustrates that 12-month, as-reported S&P 500 earnings have declined over 90% over the past 20 months (with over 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported for Q1 2009), making this by far the largest decline on record (the data goes back to 1936). In fact, real earnings have dropped to a record low and if current estimates hold, Q3 2009 will see the first 12-month period during which S&P 500 earnings are negative.

Notes:
- Where’s the market headed? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron’s recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.

Source: Chart of the Day