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Archive for June, 2008

Watching the Stock Market

Friday, June 27th, 2008

Just turned-off Bloomberg Television (the only reason for a TV in my office). When watching the stock market, I go from Bloomberg Television to the Fox Business Channel (some former Bloomberg talking heads must have received attractive offers from the Fox Business Channel) when watching the stock market. Turning-off the TV brings a wave of quiet and rest to my head. Too many opinions along with a depressed stock market paralyzes my work (months ago, the TV was turned-off because of too much stock market euphoria).

Sometimes I open Firefox to Google “stock market news”. I look for positive information. Something encouraging and hopeful to counterpoint my disappointment in recent Fed action (or inaction), the price of oil per-barrel, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - MCSI, and today’s Dow Jones Industrial Average slippage to a 20% bear stock market drop.

Have I found positive, happy, sanguine news? Not really. I have found hints of optimism based on specific indicators. Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) is a favorite stock market source of information. IBD tracks the EKG (stock trading patterns), relative strength, earnings-per-share, industry rank with a lot of other data.

At Investors.com, IBD offers a stock market video reviewing the previous day’s stock market close. Anyone may listen, but the video changes daily. Ken Shreve’s stock market commentary provides helpful insights that may soothe you while watching stock market trades.

You will find Mr. Shreve’s stock market perceptions helpful. I do. Look for the “Daily Stock Analysis” at Investors.com. Remember, this is Mr. Shreve’s comment for one day. To understand stock market trends, you’ll have to listen daily. Also, my mentioning this resource is not a recommendation. You may not find IBD’s comments helpful or suitable to your investment goals. At worst, you may find his commentary and charts entertaining.

Watch Oil and Dollar Trades To Understand Correlation

Wednesday, June 25th, 2008

Want to learn something about correlation, also known as correlation coefficient? Conceptually, correlation appears simple and recognizable. When two asset classes trade simultaneously in the same direction, they are in positive correlation. When two asset classes trade simultaneously in opposite directions, they are in negative correlation.

Correlations between asset classes differ constantly. Somewhat like a marriage. You go to bed, and synchronicity is positive (what I’ll call positive correlation). In the morning you wake up asking what happened! You both simultaneously disagree on everything (What I’ll call negative correlation.)

During 2007 and 2008, the U.S. $ suffers burdens against nearly every currency. At the same time, oil costs per barrel increase (Important to point out that the cost-per-barrel is dollar denominated.). When looking at a chart, you will notice that when oil goes up the dollar goes down. When the dollar goes up, the price-per-barrel goes down. We call this negative correlation; in fact, just about perfect negative correlation and this explains the trades back and forth between the dollar and oil.

Your asset allocation model wants as many cross correlated asset classes as possible. When one is up, the other is down.

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