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Archive for January, 2007

The Dollar: Crisp and New or…Crumpled and Old?

Wednesday, January 17th, 2007


In 1987 the dollar could buy you 154 yen; today a dollar buys you 117 yen. If you traveled to Japan in 1971, you could have a great time with 358 yen for every dollar.

In 1985, James A. Baker as secretary of Treasury Chief listed, “Item one on (the) agenda was the dollar”. This is the subject of the Appendix attached to Baker’s auto-biography, Work Hard, Study…and Keep Out of Politics

The dollar and trade deficits sent U.S. policy makers toward isolation to protect the American worker after World War I. Isolationist policies do not work because we live in a global market.

Baker recalls the steps taken as forty-four nations approved the Bretton Woods Agreement (1944). Bretton Woods established the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The dollar was benchmarked to gold prices and other currencies were benchmarked to the dollar.

Baker considers Bretton Woods along with “the Fed’s successful war on inflation” as the fuel that “set the American economy afire.” As with America; so with the world.

James Baker asserts “economic policy coordination” as fundamental for American and international prosperity. After World War II, the United States presumed economic, political, and military supremacy. But the world is changing; some countries do not care what we think or do.

Today, the U.S. is challenged in every category by every nation. Why live the American dream when you can experience the dreams of India, China, or Thailand?

America faces incredible economic challenges. How can we sustain predictable economic power if we do not bring debt under control? Debt payments could become the life-style waster for successive generations.

Well, how does this effect the dollar? One tool countries use for economic management is raising the value of their currency. Currency value is a benefit. Trade balance is the goal.

U.S. economic policy may be in the cross-hairs of low interest rates, low dollar-values, high oil prices (current low-prices are temporary), and large trade-deficits. A decision to control one could be a catalyst for the other.

“History teaches us that men and nations behave wisely once they have exhausted all other alternatives.” - Abba Eban

During an interview on Meet the Press (October 18, 1987), James Baker was prompted to say, “We will not sit back in this country and watch surplus countries jack up interest rates and squeeze growth worldwide on the expectation that the United States somehow will follow by raising interest rates.” (Listen to Bloomberg TV, and you might hear this recurrent economic theme.)

Baker writes, “One lesson I learned at Treasury is that even the most innocent remarks about the dollar or other economic issues could provoke investors to buy or sell, almost blindly, in response.” It all adds up to historical redundancy; the crisp dollar is crumpled.

Retire or Recap

Sunday, January 14th, 2007

Cars need tires. My 1950 Chevrolet convertible with Dynaflow needed tires in 1965. Recaps worked; they met my high school budget, and worked. Makes me wonder if recapping is better than retiring.

Television advertisements offer services and products for retirement. You can retire to the beach or the bedroom. Or, you can start a recap of your life.

My recapped tires needed new tread; recapping does that. Recapping your life stages makes more sense than retiring.

Ashley Kahn, wrote “The House That Trane Built: The Story of Impulse Records”. You can hear him on National Public Radio (NPR).

In the Wall Street Journal article (January 10, 2007), “A Cultural Conversation with Jerry Wexler”, Kahn celebrates Mr. Wexler’s 90th birthday (January 10th). Mr.Wexler receives accolades for his “role as producer and former president of Atlantic Records”.

Anyone ninety years old suffers the loss of friends and family. You can read all about his career in the article. What strikes me is his memory and preservation of his past, but no interest in what happens in the music industry today. “In what way could it possibly engage me? I’m not involved in it.” He is not retired; he is recapped.

Kahn visited Mr. Wexler’s home; he observed Jerry Wexler moving “…briskly from room to room, and from task to task.” Life is not over. Wexler exhibits drive and purpose. “Everybody seems to be coming to my door; BBC, NPR.”

Here is the lesson for all of us, “…there aren’t too many people at the age of 90 that are coherent or even alive.” Life provides perpetual opportunity to act, to do, to live. The past is behind; we are presented with “now” not to retire, but maybe just to recap for new trips forward.

Whether rich or less-rich, leave the word “retirement” in the dictionary.

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